India has officially ascended to the position of the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, surpassing Japan. This significant milestone reflects the nation’s robust economic growth and its increasing influence on the global stage.
IMF’s Projections and Insights
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP for 2025 is projected at $4.187 trillion, marginally surpassing Japan’s $4.186 trillion. This advancement places India just behind Germany, which holds the third position with a GDP of $4.744 trillion. The IMF anticipates that India will continue its upward trajectory, potentially overtaking Germany by 2028 to become the world’s third-largest economy.
IMF’s data: The IMF releases official figures and forecasts in cycles. Their World Economic Outlook (WEO) report projects India’s GDP to reach or surpass Japan’s in 2025 (FY26), which is this year or very soon, depending on fiscal year timing.
India’s growth rate remains the highest among major economies, with the IMF forecasting a 6.2% expansion in 2025, outpacing China’s 4% and the United States’ 1.8%.
NITI Aayog’s Vision for India’s Economic Future
During the 10th Governing Council meeting of NITI Aayog, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized a collective vision for a “Developed India @ 2047,” aiming for a $30 trillion economy by that year. NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam highlighted India’s current GDP at $4 trillion, attributing the growth to strong domestic consumption and robust global trade performance.
NITI Aayog’s statement: They say India has already become the 4th largest economy “as I speak” based on the latest data and projections during their briefing.
“We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy as I speak,” said NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam during a press briefing after the 10th Governing Council meeting. “It is only US, China, Germany which are larger than India and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5-3 years, we will be the third largest economy.”
State leaders, such as Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav and Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai, presented ambitious economic roadmaps, aiming for substantial contributions to the national economy by 2047.
Top 10 Largest Economies in 2025 (Projected Nominal GDP)
| Rank | Country | GDP (USD Trillion) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 30.51 |
| 2 | China | 19.23 |
| 3 | Germany | 4.74 |
| 4 | India | 4.19 |
| 5 | Japan | 4.19 |
| 6 | United Kingdom | 3.84 |
| 7 | France | 3.21 |
| 8 | Italy | 2.42 |
| 9 | Canada | 2.23 |
| 10 | Brazil | 2.13 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2025
Future Projections
- 2027: India is projected to achieve a $5 trillion economy.
- 2028: India is expected to surpass Germany to become the third-largest economy globally.
- 2030: India’s GDP is anticipated to reach $6.8 trillion, significantly outpacing both Germany and Japan.
India’s rise to the fourth-largest economy underscores its dynamic growth and strategic economic planning. With continued focus on structural reforms, digital infrastructure, and inclusive development, India is poised to further solidify its position in the global economic hierarchy.
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